Potential for sustainable irrigation expansion in a 3 °C warmer climate.

Climate change is expected to affect crop production worldwide, particularly in rain-fed agricultural regions. It is still unknown how irrigation water needs will change in a warmer planet and where freshwater will be locally available to expand irrigation without depleting freshwater resources. Here, we identify the rain-fed cropping systems that hold the greatest potential for investment in irrigation expansion because water will likely be available to suffice irrigation water demand. Using projections of renewable water availability and irrigation water demand under warming scenarios, we identify target regions where irrigation expansion may sustain crop production under climate change. Our results also show that global rain-fed croplands hold significant potential for sustainable irrigation expansion and that different irrigation strategies have different irrigation expansion potentials. Under a 3 °C warming, we find that a soft-path irrigation expansion with small monthly water storage and deficit irrigation has the potential to expand irrigated land by 70 million hectares and feed 300 million more people globally. We also find that a hard-path irrigation expansion with large annual water storage can sustainably expand irrigation up to 350 million hectares, while producing food for 1.4 billion more people globally. By identifying where irrigation can be expanded under a warmer climate, this work may serve as a starting point for investigating socioeconomic factors of irrigation expansion and may guide future research and resources toward those agricultural communities and water management institutions that will most need to adapt to climate change.

Enriched East Asian oxygen isotope of precipitation indicates reduced summer seasonality in regional climate and westerlies.

Speleothem oxygen isotope records over East Asia reveal apparently large and rapid paleoclimate changes over the last several hundred thousand years. However, what the isotopic variation actually represent in terms of the regional climate and circulation is debated. We present an answer that emerges from an analysis of the interannual variation in amount-weighted annual δ18O of precipitation over East Asia as simulated by an isotope-enabled model constrained by large-scale atmospheric reanalysis fields. 18O-enriched years have reduced summer seasonality both in terms of precipitation isotopes and in the large-scale circulation. Changes occur between June and October, where the δ18O of precipitation (δ18Op) transitions from the isotopically heavier winter to the lighter summer regime. For 18O-enriched years, this transition is less pronounced. Variations in precipitation amount alone are insufficient to explain the amount-weighted annual δ18Op between 18O-enriched and 18O-depleted years. Reduced summer seasonality is also expressed in the low-level monsoonal southerlies and upper-level westerlies; for the latter, the northward migration across the Tibetan Plateau in the summer is less pronounced. Our result thus implicates the westerlies across the plateau as the proximate cause of East Asian paleomonsoon changes, manifested as a modulation of its summer peak.

Modulation of hydroxyl variability by ENSO in the absence of external forcing.

The hydroxyl radical (OH) is the primary oxidant in the troposphere, and the impact of its fluctuations on the methane budget has been disputed in recent years, however measurements of OH are insufficient to characterize global interannual fluctuations relevant for methane. Here, we use a 6,000-y control simulation of preindustrial conditions with a chemistry-climate model to quantify the natural variability in OH and internal feedbacks governing that variability. We find that, even in the absence of external forcing, maximum OH changes are 3.8 ± 0.8% over a decade, which is large in the context of the recent methane growth from 2007-2017. We show that the OH variability is not a white-noise process. A wavelet analysis indicates that OH variability exhibits significant feedbacks with the same periodicity as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We find intrinsically generated modulation of the OH variability, suggesting that OH may show periods of rapid or no change in future decades that are solely due to the internal climate dynamics (as opposed to external forcings). An empirical orthogonal function analysis further indicates that ENSO is the dominant mode of OH variability, with the modulation of OH occurring primarily through lightning [Formula: see text] La Niña is associated with an increase in convection in the Tropical Pacific, which increases the simulated occurrence of lightning and allows for more OH production. Understanding this link between OH and ENSO may improve the predictability of the oxidative capacity of the troposphere and assist in elucidating the causes of current and historical trends in methane.

Changing character of rainfall in eastern China, 1951-2007.

The topography and continental configuration of East Asia favor the year-round existence of storm tracks that extend thousands of kilometers from China into the northwestern Pacific Ocean, producing zonally elongated patterns of rainfall that we call "frontal rain events." In spring and early summer (known as "Meiyu Season"), frontal rainfall intensifies and shifts northward during a series of stages collectively known as the East Asian summer monsoon. Using a technique called the Frontal Rain Event Detection Algorithm, we create a daily catalog of all frontal rain events in east China during 1951-2007, quantify their attributes, and classify all rainfall on each day as either frontal, resulting from large-scale convergence, or nonfrontal, produced by local buoyancy, topography, or typhoons. Our climatology shows that the East Asian summer monsoon consists of a series of coupled changes in frontal rain event frequency, latitude, and daily accumulation. Furthermore, decadal changes in the amount and distribution of rainfall in east China are overwhelmingly due to changes in frontal rainfall. We attribute the "South Flood-North Drought" pattern observed beginning in the 1980s to changes in the frequency of frontal rain events, while the years 1994-2007 witnessed an uptick in event daily accumulation relative to the rest of the study years. This particular signature may reflect the relative impacts of global warming, aerosol loading, and natural variability on regional rainfall, potentially via shifting the East Asian jet stream.

Variability of stalagmite-inferred Indian monsoon precipitation over the past 252,000 y.

A speleothem δ(18)O record from Xiaobailong cave in southwest China characterizes changes in summer monsoon precipitation in Northeastern India, the Himalayan foothills, Bangladesh, and northern Indochina over the last 252 kyr. This record is dominated by 23-kyr precessional cycles punctuated by prominent millennial-scale oscillations that are synchronous with Heinrich events in the North Atlantic. It also shows clear glacial-interglacial variations that are consistent with marine and other terrestrial proxies but are different from the cave records in East China. Corroborated by isotope-enabled global circulation modeling, we hypothesize that this disparity reflects differing changes in atmospheric circulation and moisture trajectories associated with climate forcing as well as with associated topographic changes during glacial periods, in particular redistribution of air mass above the growing ice sheets and the exposure of the "land bridge" in the Maritime continents in the western equatorial Pacific.

Autonomous water sampling for long-term monitoring of trace metals in remote environments.

A remotely controlled autonomous method for long-term high-frequency sampling of environmental waters in remote locations is described. The method which preserves sample integrity of dissolved trace metals and major ions for month-long periods employs a gravitational filtration system (GFS) that separates dissolved and particulate phases as samples are collected. The key elements of GFS are (1) a modified "air-outlet" filter holder to maximize filtration rate and thus minimize filtration artifacts; and (2) the direct delivery of filtrate to dedicated bottle sets for specific analytes. Depth and screen filter types were evaluated with depth filters showing best performance. GFS performance is validated using ground, stream, and estuary waters. Over 30 days of storage, samples with GFS treatment had average recoveries of 95 ± 19% and 105 ± 7% of Fe and Mn, respectively; without GFS treatment, average recoveries were only 16% and 18%. Dissolved major cations K, Mg, and Na were stable independent of collection methodology, whereas Ca in some groundwater samples decreased up to 42% without GFS due to CaCO(3) precipitation. In-field performance of GFS equipped autosamplers is demonstrated using ground and streamwater samples collected at the Angelo Coast Range Reserve, California from October 3 to November 4 2011.

Mid-latitude afforestation shifts general circulation and tropical precipitation.

We show in climate model experiments that large-scale afforestation in northern mid-latitudes warms the Northern Hemisphere and alters global circulation patterns. An expansion of dark forests increases the absorption of solar energy and increases surface temperature, particularly in regions where the land surface is unable to compensate with latent heat flux due to water limitation. Atmospheric circulation redistributes the anomalous energy absorbed in the northern hemisphere, in particular toward the south, through altering the Hadley circulation, resulting in the northward displacement of the tropical rain bands. Precipitation decreases over parts of the Amazon basin affecting productivity and increases over the Sahel and Sahara regions in Africa. We find that the response of climate to afforestation in mid-latitudes is determined by the amount of soil moisture available to plants with the greatest warming found in water-limited regions. Mid-latitude afforestation is found to have a small impact on modeled global temperatures and on global CO(2), but regional heating from the increase in forest cover is capable of driving unintended changes in circulation and precipitation. The ability of vegetation to affect remote circulation has implications for strategies for climate mitigation.

Changes in Arctic vegetation amplify high-latitude warming through the greenhouse effect.

Arctic climate is projected to change dramatically in the next 100 years and increases in temperature will likely lead to changes in the distribution and makeup of the Arctic biosphere. A largely deciduous ecosystem has been suggested as a possible landscape for future Arctic vegetation and is seen in paleo-records of warm times in the past. Here we use a global climate model with an interactive terrestrial biosphere to investigate the effects of adding deciduous trees on bare ground at high northern latitudes. We find that the top-of-atmosphere radiative imbalance from enhanced transpiration (associated with the expanded forest cover) is up to 1.5 times larger than the forcing due to albedo change from the forest. Furthermore, the greenhouse warming by additional water vapor melts sea-ice and triggers a positive feedback through changes in ocean albedo and evaporation. Land surface albedo change is considered to be the dominant mechanism by which trees directly modify climate at high-latitudes, but our findings suggest an additional mechanism through transpiration of water vapor and feedbacks from the ocean and sea-ice.

Biogenic carbon and anthropogenic pollutants combine to form a cooling haze over the southeastern United States.

Remote sensing data over North America document the ubiquity of secondary aerosols resulting from a combination of primary biogenic and anthropogenic emissions. The spatial and temporal distribution of aerosol optical thickness (AOT) over the southeastern United States cannot be explained by anthropogenic aerosols alone, but is consistent with the spatial distribution, seasonal distribution, and temperature dependence of natural biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions. These patterns, together with observations of organic aerosol in this region being dominated by modern (14)C and BVOC oxidation products with summer maxima, indicate nonfossil fuel origins and strongly suggest that the dominant summer AOT signal is caused by secondary aerosol formed from BVOC oxidation. A link between anthropogenic and biogenic emissions forming secondary aerosols that dominate the regional AOT is supported by reports of chemicals in aerosols formed by BVOC oxidation in a NO(x)- and sulfate-rich environment. Even though ground-based measurements from the IMPROVE network suggest higher sulfate than organic concentrations near the surface in this region, we infer that much of the secondary organic aerosol in the Southeast must occur above the surface layer, consistent with reported observations of the organic fraction of the total aerosol increasing with height and models of the expected vertical distribution of secondary organic aerosols from isoprene oxidation. The observed AOT is large enough in summer to provide regional cooling; thus we conclude that this secondary aerosol source is climatically relevant with significant potential for a regional negative climate feedback as BVOC emissions increase with temperature.

The changing carbon cycle at Mauna Loa Observatory.

The amplitude of the CO(2) seasonal cycle at the Mauna Loa Observatory (MLO) increased from the early 1970s to the early 1990s but decreased thereafter despite continued warming over northern continents. Because of its location relative to the large-scale atmospheric circulation, the MLO receives mainly Eurasian air masses in the northern hemisphere (NH) winter but relatively more North American air masses in NH summer. Consistent with this seasonal footprint, our findings indicate that the MLO amplitude registers North American net carbon uptake during the warm season and Eurasian net carbon release as well as anomalies in atmospheric circulation during the cold season. From the early 1970s to the early 1990s, our analysis was consistent with that of Keeling et al. [Keeling CD, Chin JFS, Whorf TP (1996) Nature 382:146-149], suggesting that the increase in the MLO CO(2) amplitude is dominated by enhanced photosynthetic drawdown in North America and enhanced respiration in Eurasia. In contrast, the recent decline in the CO(2) amplitude is attributed to reductions in carbon sequestration over North America associated with severe droughts from 1998 to 2003 and changes in atmospheric circulation leading to decreased influence of Eurasian air masses. With the return of rains to the U.S. in 2004, both the normalized difference vegetation index and the MLO amplitude sharply increased, suggesting a return of the North American carbon sink to more normal levels. These findings indicate that atmospheric CO(2) measurements at remote sites can continue to play an important role in documenting changes in land carbon flux, including those related to widespread drought, which may continue to worsen as a result of global warming.

Root functioning modifies seasonal climate.

Hydraulic redistribution (HR), the nocturnal vertical transfer of soil water from moister to drier regions in the soil profile by roots, has now been observed in Amazonian trees. We have incorporated HR into an atmospheric general circulation model (the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmospheric Model Version 2) to estimate its impact on climate over the Amazon and other parts of the globe where plants displaying HR occur. Model results show that photosynthesis and evapotranspiration increase significantly in the Amazon during the dry season when plants are allowed to redistribute soil water. Plants draw water up and deposit it into the surface layers, and this water subsidy sustains transpiration at rates that deep roots alone cannot accomplish. The water used for dry season transpiration is from the deep storage layers in the soil, recharged during the previous wet season. We estimate that HR increases dry season (July to November) transpiration by approximately 40% over the Amazon. Our model also indicates that such an increase in transpiration over the Amazon and other drought-stressed regions affects the seasonal cycles of temperature through changes in latent heat, thereby establishing a direct link between plant root functioning and climate.

Evolution of carbon sinks in a changing climate.

Climate change is expected to influence the capacities of the land and oceans to act as repositories for anthropogenic CO2 and hence provide a feedback to climate change. A series of experiments with the National Center for Atmospheric Research-Climate System Model 1 coupled carbon-climate model shows that carbon sink strengths vary with the rate of fossil fuel emissions, so that carbon storage capacities of the land and oceans decrease and climate warming accelerates with faster CO2 emissions. Furthermore, there is a positive feedback between the carbon and climate systems, so that climate warming acts to increase the airborne fraction of anthropogenic CO2 and amplify the climate change itself. Globally, the amplification is small at the end of the 21st century in this model because of its low transient climate response and the near-cancellation between large regional changes in the hydrologic and ecosystem responses. Analysis of our results in the context of comparable models suggests that destabilization of the tropical land sink is qualitatively robust, although its degree is uncertain.

Towards robust regional estimates of CO2 sources and sinks using atmospheric transport models.

Information about regional carbon sources and sinks can be derived from variations in observed atmospheric CO2 concentrations via inverse modelling with atmospheric tracer transport models. A consensus has not yet been reached regarding the size and distribution of regional carbon fluxes obtained using this approach, partly owing to the use of several different atmospheric transport models. Here we report estimates of surface-atmosphere CO2 fluxes from an intercomparison of atmospheric CO2 inversion models (the TransCom 3 project), which includes 16 transport models and model variants. We find an uptake of CO2 in the southern extratropical ocean less than that estimated from ocean measurements, a result that is not sensitive to transport models or methodological approaches. We also find a northern land carbon sink that is distributed relatively evenly among the continents of the Northern Hemisphere, but these results show some sensitivity to transport differences among models, especially in how they respond to seasonal terrestrial exchange of CO2. Overall, carbon fluxes integrated over latitudinal zones are strongly constrained by observations in the middle to high latitudes. Further significant constraints to our understanding of regional carbon fluxes will therefore require improvements in transport models and expansion of the CO2 observation network within the tropics.